Stock Market Trading & Investing Analysis

False Breakout in the US Markets, Who Was Ready for That?

Ralph — Sat, 24 May 2008 16:25:50 +0000

Well, if you read our blog last weekend YOU were prepared for the predictable false breakout above sma200. We were calling for a down, consolidation type week and we certainly got that and then some.

We are making some changes here at Successful Online Trading. We are focusing more on our own systems and trading, as that is where the real money has always been for us. So, with regret, we are discontinuing the free Weekly Breadth Based Sector Performance Reports. We still may offer free market insights and information to our readers and on this blog, so stay tuned!

If you’d like to be on our free mailing list please just leave us your name and email address in the form below …

коли под наем

компютри втора употреба

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Online Trading Sector Performance

Ralph — Sat, 17 May 2008 21:58:36 +0000

If you’d like a copy of our FREE weekly sector performance report covering over 270 specific sectors of the market and occasional insights from us please leave us your name and email address in the form below …

If you, or someone you know is one of those people who thinks technical analysis is a bunch of smoke and mirrors then print yourself a chart of the DJ-30 and SP-500 with the 200 simple moving average overlaid. After a quick glance, if you still think you don’t need to pay attention to widely followed chart features such as the 200sma than you are either too rich to care or have already lost all your money by not doing so.

Last weekend we stated “Looking ahead to next week we see a resumption of the uptrend as most likely with the point of reckoning being the sma200 for most indexes. It would be best to clearly blast through the sma 200 next week to convert it to new support. Otherwise there will be much more waffling around, aka consolidation.” Well, we had the up week and stalled just below the sma200. So there was clearly not enough energy in this up leg to blast through the sma200 so, as we mentioned, expect some waffling around now. It looks to us like the market used up a great deal of its energy this week just in arriving at the sma200. Overall, we would expect some consolidation next week. There are probably so many traders out there expecting the blast through to happen next week that what might happen is a head fake early in the week above the sma200’s and then back under for more consolidation.

Breadth for the overall market was roughly in the order of +52%, very similar to week ending April 18, which also led to consolidation the following week. In your FREE Sector Performance report you will notice the broadest buying in the Transportation, Energy & Oil, Semiconductors, Materials, Retail, Real Estate and Utility Sectors (among many others). You will also notice that only 13 sectors failed to have stronger than 0% breadth, this is a very strong signal. There really is no sector that had very broad selling last week except for Medical Practitioners, they need a break anyway, wink. But overall, our take on the market at this juncture is holding confidence to get over the sma200, but not necessarily next week. The FREE report will give you all the detail you need.

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Online Trading Breadth Based Sector Performance

Ralph — Sat, 10 May 2008 15:18:18 +0000

Last weekend we called for consolidation and testing of supports in the indexes and that’s exactly what we got. The most obvious play to exploit was the energy down/transports up pattern to reverse. This pattern showed up (as it has many times in the past) so magnificently in the FREE Sector Performance report, it was just begging to reverse. Looking ahead to next week we see a resumption of the uptrend as most likely with the point of reckoning being the sma200 for most indexes. It would be best to clearly blast through the sma 200 next week to convert it to new support. Otherwise there will be much more waffling around, aka consolidation.

Breadth for the market overall last week was in the range of -20% which is almost a mirror image of last week’s +25%. Clearly the broadest buying was in Energy and Metals & Mining … the broadest selling, a much more densely populated portion of the free report (showing the consolidation and testing of supports last week) was in Homebuilders, Retail, Financials, Utilities, Transports, Software, Real Estate and on and on… The free report will give you all the detail you need.

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Online Trading Breadth Based Sector Performance

Ralph — Sat, 03 May 2008 15:51:11 +0000

Last week we commented that the Dow and S&P 500 appeared clear to run to their sma 200’s. The Dow reached that target on Friday and the SP-500 lagged behind (as we suggested it would) but is just about to make it there as well. We would expect the S&P500 to complete that target next week but overall the upward trend is appearing to be a bit tired. We would expect to see some consolidation next week, even some possible testing of supports, as this market refuels for more upside to come in the coming weeks.

Breadth for the market overall last week was in the range of +25% which is fairly strong. This week the broadest based buying (on a percentage basis) was in Transportation, Semiconductors, Utilities, Financials and Pharmaceuticals among many others. The broadest based selling was in Tobacco, Materials, Energy and Oil. The free report will give you all the detail you need.

We had previously published the weekly reports live on this blog but decided to step up our generosity another notch and give it away in an excel format (we previously charged $5 for this) for FREE from now on! The feedback we’ve been getting from our customers is that the Excel format is much more user friendly than the blog format.

We invite you to learn more about the huge advantage breadth analysis gives you as a trader or investor. As you can see in the table above we track 11 Major US Stock Market Indexes and Averages, 23 important Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) and all of the widely followed Hemscott Financial Data North American Industry Groups. These groups are easily tracked within the award winning Worden Brothers Stock Market Trading Software Telechart. This software works perfectly with this report, we suggest you give it a try!

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Online Trading Market Analysis

Ralph — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:09:25 +0000

Our readers know that last week we were calling for some consolidation and possibly more upside in the market - ”We would expect to see some consolidation and even a bit more upside progress next week. Any downside exploration should be met with buying in what was the prior resistance zone.” That is, of course, exactly what happened. The DJ-30 and SP-500 both closed very strongly for the week and have cleared some important chart points leaving, by some standards, nothing but blue sky above. The Dow looks free to run to sma200 at approximately 13,074. The SP-500 is sitting just below the confluence of sma500, the upper bollinger band (standard settings) and ema200. This could prove to be some stout resistance. After that, it is also free to run to it’s sma200 at approximately 1,436.

Breadth for the market overall last week was about as close to 0% as it gets, very similar to recent weeks ending February 15th and 22nd. This week the broadest based buying (on a percentage basis) was in Retail, Real Estate, Pharmaceutical and Aerospace sectors among others. The broadest based selling was in Utilities and Metals & Mining among others. The free report will give you all the detail you need.

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Hottest and Coldest Stock Market Sectors

Ralph — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 17:04:26 +0000

Who else was accumulating long positions along side us while the DJ-30 was testing it’s April 1st lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning last week? We mentioned last weekend that this would be a great place to get long as some kind of bounce was likely there. We told our readers to expect some weakness on Monday and then the rest of the week should show upside progress. This is exactly what happened.

The market was surprisingly strong this week, taking out what had been a well fortified resistance zone. The DJ-30 managed to take out over 3 months of resistance on Friday, this will likely (and has already likely) converted many shorts to the light, making support out of what was only a few days ago sturdy resistance. The SP-500, however, has only tested it’s early February highs and closed just above it’s late February highs. This leaves some doubt as to whether or not the resistance here has been converted to support. Breadth for the market overall this week was very similar to week ending April 4th which led to downside the following week. The difference here is that week stopped just under resistance whereas this week, by many standards, resistance has been penetrated, and with good volume. We would expect to see some consolidation and even a bit more upside progress next week. Any downside exploration should be met with buying in what was the prior resistance zone.

This week we have 18 sectors with +100% breadth and only 22 sectors with less than 0% breadth. You will be able to easily sort the report by the “(A-D)/Total” column to see which sectors where the strongest and weakest. Enjoy!

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Online Trading Sector Performance - What’s HOT, What’s NOT

Ralph — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 16:42:10 +0000

Last weekend we stated “… we’re not seeing strong clues for a push through resistance next week” which allowed us to fade Monday’s false upside breakout. We hope some of you readers enjoyed some profits on the short side this week as well, especially if you held into the close on Friday. Both the DJ-30 and SP-500 fell on Friday to almost as low as their opening prices from April 1 (the big up day in the market). Those opening prices would be a good place to expect the downside action to pause, and possibly even be a good place to expect some bounce. The Diamonds closed the gap from April 1 on Friday and SPY came to within 28 cents, we would expect that gap to be fully filled on Monday or sometime next week before we get any bounce.

Breadth for the overall market last week was fairly weak, quite similar to the overall market breadth for week ending March 7. You will notice that after that week, there was one more day of downside then some bottoming action took place, leading to the recent rally (series of higher highs and higher lows) we’ve been seeing since then. All in all it appears next week we might see a bit more downside on Monday and then some upward progress to retest the now fortified resistance zone in the indexes. The consolidation this week may have allowed the market to refuel enough to push through that zone. We shall see.

This week we had only 10 sectors with stronger than 0% breadth. Lots of Energy and Utility related sectors are populating the relatively stronger side of the market this week. We have 16 sectors with -100% breadth, (traders voting unanimously to be OUT of those sectors). On the weak side we see Homebuilders, Internet, REal Estate, Retail, Software, Nasdaq 100, Transportation and Telecom sectors among many others.

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!

Hot & Cold Online Trading Sector Performance

Ralph — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 21:07:19 +0000

Last weekend we stated “… it appears that all the clues are pointing to upside next week, suggesting we may have made the bottom at least for a little while” and we got that upside, 95% of which all occurred in one day, Tuesday. The market shot up on that day and hit the now well established resistance zone (for the Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,650 to 12,750) and spent the rest of the week consolidating in that area, like a bunch of balloons trapped in the ceiling of a room. A lot of energy is being built into that zone and if it can be penetrated to the upside next week it should convert to some stout support for a while.

What happens in a resistance zone is very hard to predict but there are some slight clues suggesting any upside attempt will fail next week. First of all the volume on Tuesdays advance was very lack luster so OBV (On Balance Volume) for most indexes is NOT confirming this recent advance. Secondly, overall market breadth for the week was very strong, in the order of about +65%. Normally this would be a good sign but this is about the exact same reading as we had on week ending February 1 which would have been a great time to be heavy short or in puts. All in all, we’re not seeing strong clues for a push through resistance next week and even if it does happen we see it as likely to fail in the weeks to come (barring any new evidence of real strength).

If you’d like a copy of the FREE weekly sector performance report and occasional insights from us please leave us your name and email address in the form below …

This week we had about 24 sectors with +100% breadth. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that. Utilities, Transportation, Oil and Homebuilders are some of those sectors. Also, the broadest based buying was seen in Energy, Materials, Semiconductors, Retail, Real Estate among many other sectors. There really weren’t any sectors that had much selling last week, at least on a breadth basis. In fact, only 9 sectors had less than 0% breadth which is a very strong sign.

If you’d like to receive any previous Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading!